Where Have All The Vests Gone?
Some fashions come and go quickly, but others move in slower cycles (e.g. the bowler hat). What drives the rate at which given fashions shift, and most importantly, what does this mean for the future of facial hair?
In this podcast, we delve into enduring fashions and try to understand how their cultural context, evolving meaning and basic function might contribute to their longevity. We examine the history of bowler hats, vests and beards to see whether they tell us anything important about elongated fashion life-cycles. Finally, we make our own predictions about the fashion trends of the future. Anna Wintour take note.
A few things we mentioned in this podcast:
- Every England World Cup Squad Ever: A complete run down
- The Rise and Fall—and Rise—of Facial Hair
- Facial Hair Throughout the Ages
- Scott Alexander’s ‘barber pole’ model of fashion
- Who Killed Men's Hats?
For more information on Aleph Insights visit our website https://alephinsights.com or to get in touch about our podcast email podcast@alephinsights.com
Transcript
Hello and welcome to the Cognitive Engineering podcast produced by me, Fraser McGruer, for Aleph Insights. In this series of podcasts we take a look at interesting topics and discuss what we think they tell us about analysis and decision making. I'm here with Nick Hare and Chris Wragg of Aleph Insights, and this week we're discussing the decline of vests. Nick, are you wearing a vest?
Speaker B:No.
Speaker A:Chris, are you wearing a vest?
Speaker B:Well, sort of, but we can come on to that.
Speaker A:In a way you sort of are, as am I. Come on to his vest. Yeah, exactly. But in the usually understood vocabulary, meaning of vest, I'm not wearing a vest. No. None of us wearing vests, really. Nick, why aren't we wearing vests? Or bowler hats for that matter.
Speaker C:Right, so a few related observations that illustrate the phenomenon that I think we want to discuss. Right. Firstly, there are no vests. They're gone. They're gone. And there wasn't a day without a vest, really, in the olden days, in the 80s. Everyone, the vest was just part of your clothes. Yeah. And then suddenly they were gone. And I can only imagine that, you know, everyone just put them away one year, one summer, and then didn't put them back on. Relatedly, when I was a kid, I used to get the train in from South London to my nursery, with my mum, to the nursery, which was near where she worked. And she smoked. And so we'd get on the smoking carriage on the train. And there were a couple of old chaps there who worked in the city. They would always be in the same carriage, on the same train, and they smoked pipes and wore pinstripe suits and had bowler hats. And then it just occurred to me a few years ago that, you know, nobody wears a bowler hat now. And yet it wasn't unusual then. It wasn't totally weird to see people in bowler hats, which means that at some point someone put down their bowler hat and didn't pick it up the next day.
Speaker A:I don't think that's what happened.
Speaker C:But we'll get on to what might be driving this strange behavior. And then the final thing is just beards. It occurred to me. I can't remember. I think it was while I was on holiday. I think I was in a room and I realized I was about the only person without a beard in this room. And I suddenly realized that, you know, 20 years ago, if someone had a beard, it was a serious talking point. People would be going on about, why have you got a beard? And what's that all about? And look at that guy across the bar. He's got a beard. Isn't that weird? And now it's absolutely normal and not remarked on at all. So these are examples, I think, of sort of very slow. It's not fashion. It's not high fashion. It's not the kind of fashion that people talk about. You know, it's not something that Vogue is going to publish an article about. But yet, over the course of a generation or two, you see these quite profound shifts in, you know, fashion type behavior, what people wear. And why, is my question. What's driving that?
Speaker A:And also, by the way, just to pick up on the point of bowler hats. Not only bowler hats. Hats. Hats are far less...
Speaker C:Well, what about baseball caps? Well, hold on.
Speaker A:I mean, they're still far less... So there was a time where you wouldn't be complete. You wouldn't be dressed without going out with some sort of headgear.
Speaker B: you know, the cup final from: Speaker A:Although with baseball caps, you know, certainly in the States, in America, I mean, it's very, very common. I think it is more normal to sort of wear a hat all the time. It tends to be a baseball cap. But anyway, I think we want to talk about slow fashion changes. Is that right? And what moves that? What drives that? So what's driving that? Yeah.
Speaker C:How we can think about what is making people make different choices now than they were making 30 years ago?
Speaker A:Are we going to... I hope we're going to have enough meat for this. I mean, let's see. I've got some...
Speaker C:Well, I've got some data. No doubt Chris has got some interesting observations. But if you... When we're... When we're suited to be bedded in. When he's shot his load, I can talk about some data I've gathered. I'll try not to do that.
Speaker A:Yeah. Hold off on that for a bit. Chris, weigh in. What are your thoughts on all this?
Speaker B: tory of the bowler hat was in: Speaker A:But that being the case, I mean, that makes sense in the UK, for example, with bowler hats. But what about, I don't know if you've any thought, first of all, do you agree with the premise that we wear hats less, you know, in the UK? And if so, why might that be the case across all classes, for example?
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah. Well, I think, you know, there's also an issue. You see, so if you take the example of vests, right? Vests have a utility. They keep you warm. Hats have a utility, which is to keep your head warm or to shade you from the sun. And dry. So we haven't lost the requirement for a hat and we haven't lost the requirement for a vest, but they have been replaced. So we still have hats, right? And we wear them on the occasions when, you know, it's cold, people put a woolly hat on. When it's sunny, you might put a peaked hat on to shade your eyes. But the rest of the time in this country, we probably don't need them. Vests, you know, we still have a requirement to keep warm, but we've replaced that with something else. I mean, you know, shirts were originally like, you know, buttoned shirts were originally not viewed, right? They were your undergarments, right? And it was only when certain British gents started wanting to display the cuffs and the collar that it became a kind of outer fashionable garment. So, you know, that requirement for an undergarment has evolved. And one of the reasons I said, well, I'm sort of wearing a vest is we think of a vest as a sleeveless undergarment. But of course, T-shirts were originally undergarments worn by, you know, US military in particular. And when they started displaying them externally, you know, it became an outer garment.
Speaker C:It feels like there's a sort of onion phenomenon going on here where the outer layer gets peeled away. And then you have to invent new inner layers to keep yourself warm. And then the inner layers eventually make their way to the outside.
Speaker B:That's right. Yeah, we're ultimately sort of molting like snakes shedding their skin.
Speaker A:But also, just on a note, I couldn't wear a vest because now because I would just be too hot all the time, you know, even in the winter, I'd be too hot. Or maybe I really am wearing a vest because as you say, I'm wearing my T-shirt and a jumper and that sort of thing. But anyway, anyway, I digress.
Speaker C:So I think that's a set of, that's really interesting. I didn't, I didn't know any of that. I just had a hat and vest education.
Speaker A:Yes, indeed.
Speaker C:I looked at facial hair.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker C:Because I actually couldn't get any data on vests. And even hats, I couldn't easily get a kind of, you know, measure of hats per head as it were.
Speaker A:But there is data out there about hair, facial hair.
Speaker C:No, but I could easily create some and here's how. Okay. So I looked at the England squad. Yeah. Every four years.
Speaker A:Oh, wow. This is interesting. Good.
Speaker C: Prime Ministers. Hmm. So from: Speaker A:I'm guessing lots of moustaches, but anyway.
Speaker C: the first moustache was from: Speaker A:Who do I think the first person was?
Speaker C: From: Speaker A: n. If you had photos from the: Speaker C: ck, the lone standout between: Speaker B:They must have sideburns as well.
Speaker C:Yeah, they've all got long hair. And I didn't look at sideburns.
Speaker B:Late 70s and early 80s, there are, you definitely think of a lot of tashed football players. Yes, you get this cluster. You know, Graham Soones and.
Speaker C: ne moustache and one beard in: Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker C: f facial hair from Walpole in: Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker C: h to the Marcus of Salisbury,: Speaker A:Who would that have been? Salisbury, I've told you. Oh, was it Salisbury?
Speaker C:Yeah. So then a real sort of, yeah, but it's moustaches. Every other person is a moustache.
Speaker A:Yeah, like Macmillan, Eden, you said.
Speaker C: illan? Since Macmillan. Since: Speaker A:So, this is brilliant. This is interesting. The question is, why? Is that the question? Do we want, I mean, do we want to explore that? Or is there other stuff we want to talk about?
Speaker C:Yeah, well, I...
Speaker A:What drives this stuff?
Speaker C:I've got a few general observations about the kinds of variables we might be looking at.
Speaker A:Before we do, Chris, anything to say?
Speaker B: s, so about to year: Speaker C:You've got a bit of an Abraham Lincoln thing going on.
Speaker B:That's what I thought.
Speaker A:He's quite a sober individual in some ways.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah. So I thought I'd go for it. And then... Well, wait a minute. What were the results of all these? Let's just talk through what happened with the goatee. The goatee was pretty good. The reason I started growing the Abraham Lincoln beard was because I'd noticed when I was sort of in my stubble, I'd noticed like this patchy gap developing. I was like, what's that all about? Mange. Yeah, I'd better, I'd better see what happens here. So, so I grew it and it turns out it was an early grey patch. So I had this little two grey stripes in my... Sounds quite distinguished. Yeah, that's what I thought.
Speaker A:But the whole Abraham Lincoln thing, did you shave your upper lip?
Speaker B:Yes, yeah, it was literally the jawline... Chin strap. Well, not a chin strap. Yeah, yeah. That's right.
Speaker C:Because I too attempted, I attempted to grow a goatee because a girl I fancied said she liked them. It was a failure. It was a terrible failure. A failure on all fronts. I've got quite fair hair. So it would have taken a lot of work, I think. And even then it wouldn't have been... It wouldn't be good enough for her. No, I think, I think she was looking for more of the kind of, you know, Cypress Hill hard man kind of goatee. And I would never have been able to pull that off.
Speaker A:No, I don't think so. No. So after your, the years of enforced celibacy because of this beard. Yeah.
Speaker B:I then, I then realised it was folly. No, basically, I sort of got rid of it at some point because it was just a pain to... To maintain. To manage, yeah. And then I noticed, you know, I don't know, let's say five or 10 years later, you know, the hipster beard explosion. And so, yeah, I was probably single handedly responsible for that.
Speaker C:Well, can I also throw this into the mix? I don't know if you noticed this, Chris, because we both worked in the Ministry of Defence at the time. But of course, we also had a lot of people who deployed to Afghanistan where you were supposed to grow a beard so that you could look like a real man in front of the local Afghans. Right. And actually, I think the first beards and moustaches I remember being aware of were of people who'd been out there in Afghanistan. And I wonder if that had some kind of subtle influence on, you know, I mean, if the local hard man from your town comes back from, you know, on leave and he's got a beard, you might think, well, that's quite cool. The army guy. Yeah, I want to be like him. I don't know if that sowed some seeds somewhere.
Speaker B:Yeah, who knows where it comes from? There's also a sort of a bit of a kind of steampunk Victorian aspect to it with people waxing their moustaches.
Speaker A:A friend of mine claims to have witnessed when that happened, the moment when that became a thing. Let's say it was 10 years ago, for example. He said that what happened was at Glastonbury that there was one or two people were doing exactly that. And that sort of all the people who went to Glastonbury then sort of came back to wherever, Shoreditch and wherever else. And they thought, you know, that was a good thing. Let's, you know, do also waxing like that ultra that that high hipster look. Yeah. So that's his theory. I'm not sure I completely agree with him. But yeah, I feel we've sort of quite gone quite deep into beards here.
Speaker C:So I think I think we what we the interesting. So I've isolated a bunch of different types of variable, not specific variables, just in terms of what sorts of variables we might be looking for that could could give us this kind of change. Firstly, we got static sort of endogenous elements. In other words, the things that people are making a decision on that are really about the here and now, which might be how many people have beards right now. So it might be that there's not many, you might you might choose not to get one yourself. But if there's lots, you might choose to get one. Then there's dynamic elements. So you might this is about basing your decision on the rate of change. So it's not just how many people it's how fast they're growing. And if you think, oh, okay, this beard thing is or is going to be all the rage, I'm going to grow a beard. Because you're seeing it climbing, the beard thing is taking off, it's a bandwagon, you want to be on there versus seeing it declining, and then wanting to get your razor out because you don't want to be unfashionable. But then there's environmental factors, which might be an issue or including technological ones, which we might touch on to do with things like clothing and air conditioning and all those other things. And finally, stochastic elements is if there could be pure randomness involved, it could just be that, you know, there's a certain, you know, percentage chance that someone will want to grow a beard at any given time. And then combining that with some other dynamic factors, it might be that just 10 people in town all just happened to decide to grow a beard at the same time. And hey, presto, that then becomes a thing. There's also Yeah, so that's that. Those are the kinds of things. And I think to produce a cycle, we need there needs to be a dynamic element. So there needs to be some consideration of the rate of change. So our behavior needs to be based on some perception of what is going up and what's coming down. Because if it's static, then you would expect it to converge on an equilibrium where just there was always the same percentage of people with beards. But that isn't that doesn't happen. So there's some there's, we're looking for a dynamic variable, we're looking for, you know, we're looking for, you know, we're looking for a dynamic variable. Something which which is either exogenous and driven by technology, or which is where people's decisions are based on seeing things change and wanting to either get on board or get off.
Speaker B: hink about bowler hats, being: Speaker C:Which is that something starts, it could be anything. Let's just assume that people are experimenting. People of all different social statuses are experimenting with wearing things. And at some point, a few high status people, whether they're, you know, in the modern age, footballers, or, you know, YouTube influencers or something, sort of decide to do a certain thing. And they're high status. So the people who are a bit lower status than them, want to join that high status bandwagon. So the sort of signal descends. But people who are way down the social scale, who haven't got a hope of looking like, you know, a footballer or whatever, it hasn't reached them, doesn't exist. You go down to the local Wetherspoons, no one's got a beer. Then gradually, you know, more and more people are exposed to slightly higher status people than them, who are doing that thing. And they then gradually adopt it, and it gradually starts to seep down the social scale. And then the people at the top go, wait a minute, there's people in Wetherspoons wearing a beard, it's time to shave. And, and so then it disappears. And the same seepage carries on downwards. Which I think I feel like that, that the quick Chris's question, which is how does it Why does it take so long? And I wonder if it's because there are some things which just take a long time to get associated in this with status. Like you mentioned, I mean, the interesting thing about the bowler hat, you know, it takes a long time for it to become associated with being middle class, and then upper class people won't do it. And now it's a, you know, all being a set. So yeah, I think it's all you know, yeah, so I think something like that, you know, that actually the, the characteristics that people are trying to emulate, take a long time to be associated with being high status. Because there's, and so my hypothesis would be because there's something slightly arbitrary about them. Whereas, you know, wearing, driving a really expensive car or living in a massive house is something which is not, it's obviously it's just the association with being high status is, is immediate. And it's difficult to emulate. The association of beards and high status is going to take a lot longer to, to appear because, you know, that's, I mean, we will never know.
Speaker A:We will never know. We need to stop. You've got a beard. I do. I've got a beautiful beard. What's that all about? Do you know what, for years, for years, I mocked myself, thinking that I was incapable of growing a beard. Turns out I am incapable of growing a decent beard. But I remember when my mother was alive, she used to say to me, I see every month or two, over years, and she would always go, how's the beard going? I said, well, it's, this is it, you know. So I do, I don't know. I mean, because when we met, when I was a callow youth, as were you, yeah, no beard. Now I've got a beard. And I think just one day I thought, I'll try it out, you know.
Speaker C:You thought, you think that's what you thought. But really, you thought, I want to look cool like those hipsters down at the artisan shop.
Speaker A:And I can't help but feel that it's sort of, there's a correlation with the lack of hair, as I've less hair on top, like put more down here. And I always thought, oh, the tricky bit would be the sides, you know, I've never been able to grow decent sideburns. And I think the answer is still the same.
Speaker B:It's basically that optical illusion, aren't you? Where you, where you can turn the face upside down.
Speaker C:I can tell you the next, the next coming hair trend, because I saw loads of people with it. Well, a significant number.
Speaker A:Well, actually, let's make this our question to finish off on.
Speaker C:Well, I mean, okay. So what's the new, what's the new bowler hat stroke, facial hair stroke vest? Yeah. Okay. Just in the, in the next couple of years, I anticipate seeing a lot more men with a full beard and side and shaved sides of heads and then a sort of little ponytail thing. Oh, really? Yeah, that's the.
Speaker A:What is your prediction based on?
Speaker C:I've seen it now in a few places.
Speaker A:Yeah. So describe again. So a beard, but then shaved.
Speaker C:Shaved side of the head and then the top of it sort of pulled back into a kind of ponytail. So you look a bit like a Nordic, how you might imagine a Nordic warrior to look.
Speaker A:Or a, or a, that's kind of what, what do you call them? Dispatch riders, not dispatch riders. What's the word I'm looking for in London? Who cycle around? Couriers. Couriers. That's kind of a courier look as well. Yeah. Yeah, kind of. That's kind of going back to 80s, almost goth metal type thing, but okay. All right. So that's your prediction.
Speaker C:Or perhaps just the, the 880s Viking type thing. I think that's what they imagine anyway.
Speaker A:I don't have a prediction, but I did have a prediction in the past and it came true, which was, I remember watching Peaky Blinders. Okay. The popular was BBC. Yeah, still BBC program. And I thought, you know what? We're going to see a lot of those baggy cloth caps. Yeah, I hate them. And I just don't like it because it's just so obvious where it's come from. And it's just so sheep like, you know, and, you know, and actually that sort of slight beardy guy, which is because I also annoyed me. Yeah. But also I had a, I had a flat cap, which I unfortunately I've lost, but I thought that's going to stop me now from wearing my, my flat cap because people are going to think I'm trying to do a cloth cap, but I'm not. But, and then the other one actually madman was no admin. What was it called? Madman, where that sort of very sharp sort of fifties tights suits, small lapels. And I thought that's going to be a thing. And that became a thing. Chris, what's going to become a thing? Well, so now that I've said I can do this, right, that I predicted in the past, I've got to do it now. I'm really lucky. I've got what actually, well, I think I'm probably a little bit behind on this because we probably talked about that. I think baggy, baggier trousers, baggier trousers. We're going to see that. I think that's what we're going to see. Like, thank God for the long awaited death of skinny jeans. I find them a bit chuggy, to be honest. Chris.
Speaker B:Yeah. So I think, I mean, it's, it's been vaunted for quite, quite a while, but the, the death of the, the tie is, is something, I mean, if I think about when the last time I wore a tie was, it was, it was at my mother's funeral. And the next time I'm going to wear one will be at an upcoming friend's wedding. Okay. And, and in the workplace, you know, I think they're dead, but I'm going to go a bit further than that. Yeah. And say the death of the lounge suit is, is upon us. So I think that that, that expectation that a man in a formal setting will wear a lounge suit, I think over the next couple of decades, that will. Even on occasions like funerals and weddings? Well, and this, I mean, this is quite interesting because I think the one hope for anything to achieve, you know, almost immortality is to become part of a tradition, whether that's an invented tradition or a genuine one. And, you know, so, so there may be a place for it in traditional ceremonial type settings like weddings and funerals. But I think beyond that, 20 years time, they'll be gone.
Speaker C:My understanding is that formal attire simply tracks normal attire from, you know, some, a generation or two behind. So no doubt Chris is correct. But I don't know about suits. I think they might, they might be on the way back.
Speaker A:Or it could, yeah, I mean. Otherwise 100 years from now.
Speaker C:Because it's now everyone, no one wears one, which makes me think it's the time is right for the barber pole to start rotating again and for high status people to be wearing suits and ties.
Speaker B:Maybe. I mean, if you're talking about longevity, you know, you look at the tie, you know, that's from the 30 Years War, you know, in the 17th century. And, you know, basically cravats kind of came from the Croatian mercenaries there. Croats, cravats. And, you know, that trend for neckwear has been up and down for hundreds of years. So that's a really long one. And I think the eventual death of that, which we're definitely, definitely seeing, is quite significant, you know, for, you know, that's longer than all of those other trends.
Speaker A:Just on a slight aside, does anything rhyme with Croat? Because I remember years ago playing a Dungeons and Dragons.
Speaker C:Sobo Croat?
Speaker A:Yeah, there you go, that arrived. No, I remember years ago having a Dungeons and Dragons type argument. There was a beast that I pronounced as a zoat. And my friends said, you idiot, it's a zoat. You know, and then I couldn't think of an example of anything that would make that OA sound, an OA sound.
Speaker C:Trying to find a rhyme for Croat is something you should never have a go at.
Speaker A:As always, thanks for listening. If you've got any thoughts or suggestions for topics, you can email us at podcast at alephinsights.com. We'd love to hear from you. If you enjoyed the podcast, what should you do, Chris?
Speaker B:You should lightly doff your bowler hat and suppress the like button.
Speaker A:Indeed, you should. Thanks, as always, for listening. I'm Fraser McGruer. We've been here with Nick Hare and Chris Wragg of Aleph Insights. Until next time, goodbye. Podcast at alephinsights.com
