Episode 203

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Published on:

1st Jul 2020

Should we Listen to Celebrities?

Does fame and an ability to pretend to be someone else qualify you to be an expert on other matters?

Things mentioned in this podcast:

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Transcript
Speaker A:

Hello and welcome to the Cognitive Engineering Podcast produced by me, Fraser McGruer for Aleph Insights. In this series of podcasts, we take a look at interesting topics and discuss what we think they tell us about analysis and decision making. I'm here with Nick Hare and Peter Coghill of Aleph Insights, and this week we're discussing whether we should listen to Hugh Grant. And unusually, because of lockdown, we're recording this remotely. Peter, what's Hugh Grant been

Speaker B:

telling us to do? Well, Hugh Grant, among other celebrities, there's been a big slew of celebrities being quite critical and vocal about the government's decisions and policies around how to handle COVID-19 and how to run the lockdown and things. And particularly the story that prompted this was Hugh Grant described the UK as being fucked and called the Tories bonkers after an interview with Matt Hancock on this morning. And it just got me thinking, it got me thinking about a number of things. So I mean, celebrity endorsements and celebrity driven products are big things, lots of money in it. And I just got me thinking as to why, why is it the case that celebrities have so much apparent power over consumers and people's opinions? Yet, Hugh Grant, he's not a politician. He's not a bureaucrat. He's not been in government. So what credentials has he got that means that we should listen to his opinions about what man... About anything, unless he's acting. Unless he's acting. I mean, if he was giving advice on how to be an actor, totally, that makes sense. Because I think he's quite good. He's quite fun.

Speaker C:

Well, I don't know. We'll have to discuss that as well. Like, is a practitioner actually any good at giving you advice about their, their field of endeavour?

Speaker B:

Indeed, indeed. So but it got me thinking. And it's one of those topics that I think I've noticed a trend in myself. A lot of topics that I like, I sort of pick out, are to do with psychology. And I think it's because I don't know anything about humans. I really don't understand how to talk to humans or how they work. So these podcasts help me understand how other people

Speaker A:

are. Well, we're happy to be of service. That's good to know. Just by the way, I've got a bit of a soft spot for Hugh Grant. I rather like him. And I think some of the things he comes out what he said, you know, also, he can deliver a line, right? And he's funny. And I remember him saying, I know, it's not his his quote, but he said, you know, about politics, it's, you know, it's showbiz for ugly people. It's quite good. But also, and just he said, I remember the same interview, just saying how weird all politicians are. And also, one of my favourite ones of his was he talked about the the Tory government ministers, as a circle of masturbatory free bet prefects, I think

Speaker C:

he called. So the interesting thing about Hugh Grant, something we noticed when we were looking at a picture of him and Matt Hancock, is that if you saw a picture of Hugh Grant, and you saw a picture of Matt Hancock, and you knew their names, but you didn't know that one was a Tory MP, and the other one was a was a celebrity, you definitely think it was the other way around. Hugh Grant looks like he'd make an absolutely perfect MP. And of course, he did a very good job playing Jeremy Corb in a very British scandal. Does that mean he knows about politics? Discuss.

Speaker A:

Yeah. Okay, so I mean, just just as a quick defensive of actors and well known people, I guess, you know, all of us are entitled to have an opinion. And, you know, just because we're not a politician doesn't mean we can't have an opinion on politics. But I guess, you know, but why, you know, people should be quoting me, right? Or Joe blogs in the street? Are you are you less likely to be right

Speaker C:

about stuff or to be listened to you to be listened to any less or more than an actor?

Speaker A:

Yeah, yeah. So there we go. That is our topic of discussion. So we've set it out. Yeah, kick off either Peter or Nick, what do you what do you reckon? Well, I thought I might layer layer the

Speaker B:

ference I can find is back in:

Speaker C:

return on the investment. Yeah, I mean, I'm not sure that's really in much doubt. I think I think what we're saying is, is it right that that works? I mean, it all ought we to listen to celebrities or we to trust what they say, quite apart from let's assume that, you know, when they're being paid, we should put no, absolutely no store whatsoever into what they're saying. I mean, any more than you would anyone else who was paid to say something. Put my hard nose marketers hat

Speaker B:

on. I don't care why it works. Or if it should work. All I want to do is get more units out

Speaker C:

the door. I've never seen I've literally never seen Peter wear this hard nose marketers hat.

Speaker B:

But I just pulled it out of the wardrobe. Oh, look, he's got it there just now. He's wearing it right now. Yeah, it's a pinstripe trilby. Yeah. Good choice, sir. But yeah, whether or not that's kind of morally repugnant in some way is is an interesting question. And also, but I also like to explore why, why is the case? Why is it that some kind of familiarity with a person makes you more likely to, to, to behave in a certain way with things that they are endorsing or admonishing? Okay, so I think there's two things here, which is first of all,

Speaker A:

celebrity endorsements, versus having a celebrity sitting on question time talking about stuff. I think that's two very different things, right? Because in one of them, they're flogging stuff. And yeah, like, like you say, I think it's really you can really understand why that work. Well, it makes sense that they do that. And we can see that it does work. And I think you're right. Maybe it's an interesting question about why it does work. You know, what influences our decisions to buy stuff, right? And then, yeah, maybe we can explore that and then talk about and then move on to like, should they be telling us about where the interest rate should go up or down that kind

Speaker C:

of thing? Yeah, I mean, that's more or less what I looked at. So I mean, I was kind of looking at the question of what the what the hypothesis is, I think that we want to test is that does accomplishment in one field translate to accomplishments in another field, right? So I mean, on one hand, you might say, well, a chef, a successful chef might talk about how to run a business. And I would think, well, that's actually probably going to be quite useful. Now, he might only be telling me about how to run restaurants. Certainly, if he's going to tell me how to cook an egg, I'll listen to him. But it's also true that someone who's a successful chef will know about a whole load of other stuff. And it might be useful to listen to that what they think about how to run a business and to take their advice. But they won't necessarily.

Speaker B:

And they'll certainly have a view on a particular type of business, which you may not be aware of. And so and the more the more kind of models you can have of different types of businesses, the more you've got to go on when you're designing or running your own business.

Speaker C:

Yeah, so and, and so there's a question of how do we judge whether or not one person's accomplishment can translate into another field in some way? And then, you know, when we think about that question, we might be able to apply it to to sort of acting and politics, or is there some overlap, that means that, you know, being a good actor gives you an insight into politics. That's, that's one or actually, in this case, really, it's epidemiology, does does being a good actor make you a good epidemiologist? That's kind of because that's what Hugh Grant was talking about. So there's the question of, okay, well, what, what's epidemiology? What's the word? Epidemiology was about how he was talking about the government's mismanagement of COVID. Okay, suggesting that, you know, that they're doing it wrong. So, so there's this question of like, how we work that out for a given pair of professions, say, and the sort of two hypotheses would be one end, no, there's no overlap. Being good in one field really gives you no insight, versus, well, actually, they're both, both of those fields are being driven by some fundamental, fundamental set of skills. And so, you know, there's, there's that question of how we how we make that judgment. There's also something a slightly different question, which I think applies across the board, which is accomplishment is not the same as so being good at something is not the same, actually, as understanding it necessarily. So this comes down to this question of sort of expertise in terms of being a practitioner, versus expertise in being able to, to form correct beliefs about something. So for example, a really good golfer might still be hopeless at giving you advice about how to play golf. Likewise, a politician might be good at being a politician, but bad at talking about politics and bad at making forecasts. And so there's the question of well, even if even if acting and politics were very closely related, does that mean that Hugh Grant, a good actor, is going to make a good pundit? And so that there's, there's, they're the two dimensions, really. So how do you judge overlap between two separate professions? And then secondly, what's the overlap between expertise and belief and being correct about

Speaker B:

stuff? And there's certainly a very key distinction between in government between making sensible, good policies and selling those policies. So the politics, the politicians are there to try and get a policy enacted. But they're not designing the policies, the civil, the civil servants and the government technocrats who design the policies. The politician's job is just to try to sell it, get it and get it through the house. Just one thing, though, I mean, I don't think,

Speaker A:

I think you could argue that someone like Hugh Grant, in this case, I don't think he's necessarily saying that he's an expert. And when and he's not saying that he should be in government, he's not saying that he should be making policy. I think he's just merely pointing out that things that he doesn't think are correct.

Speaker C:

He's parroting the views of his enlightened North London friends, no doubt. I mean, judging by my Facebook feed at the moment, it sounds pretty much like most of the people I know what they're saying, so. Which is unusual, actually. Actually, North London people are quite lefty.

Speaker A:

That's what I mean. Well, I don't think Hugh Grant's that lefty. But I mean, he went to private school at Oxford and all that. I mean, he might, he might be. We're going down a rabbit hole.

Speaker C:

We are. We're now discussing Hugh Grant's. I don't know what we're talking about. We don't know enough about Hugh Grant. But yeah, look, anyway, this question of like transferability of skills, that's something I was trying to think about. And there's actually really bugger all data out there, because collecting data would require some longitudinal analysis and some measurement of things that are quite hard to measure. So, you know, what I was interested in, for example, is there a sort of data set you can point to? We can say, well, I know this guy's a physicist. Would he make a good lawyer? How would I, could I just look at the kind of skills profile of a physicist and work out whether or not they were the same sorts of skills that would make you a good lawyer?

Speaker A:

And I'm not surprised there's no research. I thought there's very little research out there.

Speaker C:

So I think that's it. But of course, as always, when there's when there's a lack of any data, there's there's there's opinions rush in to fill the gap. And there's tons of stuff out there about, OK, what are transferable skills? So, you know, and they're all quite plausible. I mean, the things that people say are transferable skills are things like, you know, teamwork and leadership, time management, listening and communication, those kinds of things, which which are going to whatever you're doing, they're going to be things that are going to be useful. Likewise, things like, you know, conscientiousness and intelligence. I mean, they're things that, you know, so you what you what you can definitely what you should plausibly be able to do is say this person has accomplished a lot in field A. That's probably evidence that they have some set of these fundamental skills, right, without which you can't really do anything at all. And and so maybe, you know, maybe maybe that works. You could say, well, actually, being good in politics requires a certain set of skills like, you know, being big, conscientious, finding out about things in short bursts, mugging up on stuff, being good at interacting with people, understanding humans. There's actually a whole bunch of those things probably true of actors as well. So maybe, you know, maybe that's plausible. But but I did. So what I tried to do is have a look at, you know, a few professions to look at where track which ones were sort of transferable and which ones weren't, again, came up against a real lack of any information here. But I looked at physics graduates and where they end up. And actually, it's pretty clustered. You know, if you've done physics, you're you're the most likely thing you'll end up doing is teaching physics. And then then the next thing you'll probably be doing is working in finance or in in science in some way. And then there's a long tale of sort of physicists who've ended up doing stuff like working in the media. But yeah, if you study physics and get good at physics, you're probably going to be doing something related to physics. And then lawyers, it probably won't surprise you that people who study law, the majority of them end up working in in legal professions. So it's just on that sort of measure, that looking at these sort of specialized degrees, like physics, like law, and one can assume like drama, perhaps, you know, when you if you're studying one of these sort of specialized topics, you're probably going to end up doing that thing. So what whereas, you know, if it was really transferable, if these sorts of skills were super transferable, then you would expect to find those people just randomly distributed all over the extreme other end of the spectrum. And, and so I did, I mean, I've only found a couple of bits of data about, you know, correlation between the things you sort of the sort of broad subject area. So things like where you studying arts, where you studying engineering, you know, where you studying medicine, and where you kind of end up? Yeah. And in fact, even then, it's not there isn't a sort of clear, there's no clear patterns. So yeah, so I think we basically what I'm saying is, data is is not there, really. So we're going to have to rely on intuition, making stuff up. That's my favorite. That's my favorite method of analysis. Yeah. So I think, I mean, so I did, I did. Well, I didn't know before we move on to like, trying to answer the question, which I've had a go at of is what's the is there a skills overlap between acting and politics, I have tried, I've had a go at that, right? And I can explain my methodology. But before we do that, is there anything else that people, you know, wanted to, because I think Peter's looked

Speaker B:

at this from a slightly different angle? Yeah, well, yeah, not really, I was gonna what I was gonna do is try to proffer an explanation as to why you how you might fall foul of the celebrity endorsement as a thing to empower our listeners to be conscious to resist to resist it? Well, to be at least aware of this potentially happening and why it's happening. And the sort of my favorite theory that I've found so far is that being having evolved into social creatures as we have, we, it's been crucial for us to be able to remember people, remember other individuals, both friendly and unfriendly, in order for survival. And so we have developed and evolved machinery in our brains, which are extremely good at recognizing people, and remembering who they are, and remembering whether or not we like them. And the problem is that machinery doesn't really work in the modern world, where we get bombarded with images and video of people that we've never met, and have got nothing to do with, called, you know, celebrities out there. But we, our brains don't know that they don't know that we don't know them. And the brain, our brains treat them as if they're the friendly people, the people we like on telly, as if they're sort of members of our family or our friends. So we're more likely to go along with what they are suggesting, i.e. they're a celebrity endorsement.

Speaker A:

But it's more than that. I mean, I think you're right. But it's because also, it's not just that they're our friends. They're our best friends. And by best, I mean, they're the best looking. They're the funniest. They're the richest. And everyone, everyone knows them. Everyone likes to be friends with them. So that's why, you know, when I want to buy this t-shirt, yeah, I might buy sort of, I might sort of see Nick or Peter, I know it sounds unlikely. I'm wearing a really nice t-shirt. And you know, that might influence my decision. If I see my best mate, I'll buy that t-shirt. Yeah, I see my best best mate, who's everyone's best mate, and everyone loves him, Hugh Grant, wearing this t-shirt, boom, I definitely want that. So I think that's, that's the power they have. They're the best person.

Speaker B:

They're definitely selected for, for their aesthetics as well.

Speaker C:

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, it's getting slightly, well, let's get, let's get slightly off topic. But this question about why you're high status, if you're an actor, which is quite an interesting one. It's one of those professions, which sort of shortcuts what would normally be considered a fairly low status kind of profession. In that it doesn't, it doesn't require a vast amount. I am not doing down acting here. I know it's a skill, but it's a skilled, almost a skilled manual job, really, it's not, you know, it's being able to read, read things convincingly. And it's not like hugely creative, it doesn't, it's not doesn't doesn't demand by itself, you know, a huge amount of cognitive ability. But it's one of those things, which is a bit like being a musician. Again, it's a sort of craft. And mostly, people who do crafts are not high status, but crafts, which happen to thrust you in front of a large number of people, make you high status by default. And I think that's, that's what's, that's why sort of actors and musicians, who, you know, are, they are just sort of crafts people, nevertheless, are listened to in a way that is superficially quite puzzling, you know, so particularly, I mean, you can make an argument that actors, well, they've got a kind of insight into human nature in some way, I don't know if it's true, but you can make the argument. But you can't really do that with the, you know, the front man of a band, for example, like, they're just good at playing music. And yet, their views and opinions are still considered worth listening to, you know, people want to read interviews with Morrissey, and Tom York, don't they? I mean,

Speaker A:

there's more than that, though. It's because, I mean, you're a musician, Nick, and I am a little bit. And something I've noticed is that just because you can play the piano, let's say, people like you, it's really weird. You know, if you haven't been, it hasn't been a route to

Speaker C:

success. That's the only reason people like Nick. Yeah. Yeah, it's open doors all over the world.

Speaker A:

That's Yeah, it does. It does, though, you know, I mean, waiting for the invitation to the White House, you know, yeah. But people kind of almost inexplicably, and I think it's a kind of, I think it's a mixture of rarity, or not rarity. But, you know, it's a skill that I mean, pretty much anyone can go out there and be a salesperson, for example, might not be very good at it, but they can they can go and do it if you use a low barrier to entry. But even just playing the piano, just for recreational purposes, there is there's a barrier to do that. And a lot of people just cannot do it. And so I think it's a mixture of that sort of, you know, that rarity, that barrier, but also is the emotional side of things. If you're a reasonable pianist, or guitarist, whatever it might be, or actor, is that elicits emotions in people, which means that they like you. And it's a really quick, you know, they don't have to know anything about you, other than than that, and they will like you. And so that's and then if people will like you, then then, you know, they might buy, they might buy shoes that you endorse or something like that. So I think I

Speaker C:

don't think they've seen the kind of shoes I wear. And then that goes out the window.

Speaker A:

Yeah, sorry. So look, I think we've digressed slightly, because there was something you were

Speaker C:

going to get onto, Nick, what was it? Well, yeah. So actors, the politicians, right? Is there a similarity in some way? And I have looked at the biogs and specifically the sort of educational background of people who went into acting and people who went into politics, just to see if there's an overlap. And very briefly, no, the answer is no. Yeah. So I looked at now this is going to be serious selection bias. So don't have a data set, I had to sort of cobble my own together, just looking at the top 10 actors and actresses who have been nominated for Oscars. So the people who've been who've won the most Oscars, right? Top 10 of them. And then the last 10 Prime Ministers of the UK. So I looked at those and what's their background? Well, looking at the actors, right? So you have 40%, so four out of 10, four out of 10 of them studied drama. So that Meryl Streep, Ingrid Bergman, Daniel Day-Lewis, and Bette Davis. Okay, 44 out of 10 of them did actually did something military, which is interesting. Jack Nicholson, Spencer Tracy, Marlon Brando. And yeah, Jack Lemmon actually went to Harvard, but he studied war service sciences. So I don't really know what that is. But then one person was an engineer, which was Walter Brennan. And only one of them has a sort of proper degree, which is Katherine Hepburn, who did history and philosophy. So you've got basically skewed towards drama and like military, weirdly. Then looking at the Prime Ministers, well, it won't surprise you that basically, to a first approximation, they did PPE at Oxford.

Speaker A:

Well, hold on, just just before you go ahead there, I'm slightly surprised by your selection, because why not go with US Presidents? That would seem to be closer. But anyway,

Speaker C:

carry on with your with your I'd be surprised. I would be surprised if it was drastically different with the exception, I would expect possibly some military service people in US Presidents. But honestly, just because I could, I could just recall it, it was probably should have done. But I mean, but anyway, so the, the people who, so the Prime Ministers basically did, they basically went to Oxford, with the exception of John Major and Jim Callaghan out of the last 10. And Gordon Brown, so they didn't get a degree. And Gordon Brown did went to Edinburgh to study history. So politicians in this country, let's say have a academic background, by and large, whereas actors, really, by and large, definitely don't most, they went to drama school by default. Then I thought, well, actually, well, let's see if there's any actors and politicians who've done they've both done the both. So are there any MPs who are actors and actually, over the last 150 years, Glen Watson, anyway, keep going. They've been 12, or 13, actually, not a lot, is that they were also MPs? No. And I must say, I've not really heard of many of them. Tracy Brabin rings a bell. As you say, Glenda Jackson, the MP for Hampstead and Highgate, and later Hampstead and Kilburn, for the last nearly 30 years. And the rest are through. I ruled out people who were just candidates, anyone could do that. So this has had to be people who'd successfully become MPs. Yeah, so so they not many. And in fact, you know, if you if just making various assumptions about how many people have been MPs, and how many people have been actors, and the probability of being both, there's that's about what you'd expect, if it was sort of randomly distributed. So So, yeah, so I, but what I'm saying is, acting and politics don't really have much of an overlap. I mean, with backgrounds in terms of actual empirical data, you know, there aren't really surprisingly large number of people who do both. I which surprised me, I actually, I thought, well, one of the things you could do if you're an actor, is go and be an MP. Because you're quite good at standing up in front of people and being plausible. Yeah, that doesn't seem to have happened, at least not in this country.

Speaker A:

Yeah. Look, we need to kind of round this off. I want to come back to Peter. But I think there's just before we do this, there's a couple of interesting ways, I think interesting ways, you could flip this around, like, how good are MPs? How good are sorry, our politicians are acting? And there's been various cases of them doing that. Tony Blair was did a brilliant bit of acting in was it the Catherine Tate show? He was he was almost scarily a little bit too good

Speaker C:

at acting. But also Ronald Reagan, I don't know if you've heard of that guy. He was quite a

Speaker A:

famous actor. Yeah. Yeah. But also, the other thing is, is, is, is, is, you know, should we listen to actors? We if we narrow it down to politics? Should we listen to actors about politics? But also, should we listen to politicians about politics? I don't know. But Pete, there's a question I want to come up onto. I've got a fun little question. But we need to run this off. Peter, any last words?

Speaker B:

Not really, no. But I did find a fun article when I was doing some reading about this. There's been a few of these sorts of articles, but the most evocative title was 24 times celebrities have been completely unrelatable during quarantine. And it's sort of, this was particularly fun, we'll link to it in the description. This is particularly fun, because there's been, they include some of the best retorts that just Joe public has come back with. But they include things like Drake showing off his NBA regulation size private indoor basketball court. Justin Bieber and Kendall Jenner self reflecting about privilege. Just, just funny. Yeah, just, just, just quite.

Speaker A:

I like the sound of that. I'll definitely looking at that. Look, just really quick, slightly banal question. I don't know if we came to any conclusion on that. I think we did. Yeah, don't listen to the actors, I think was I mean, give them the same amount of credence as you would

Speaker C:

anyone else. Yeah, exactly. Peter says going to be hard to switch off your reptilian brain. When you think Oh, my best mate Hugh Grant has just said that. Yeah, exactly. So think about

Speaker A:

Hugh Grant. Quick question. I mean, I really like Hugh Grant. What's your favourite Hugh Grant

Speaker C:

film? Simple as that. Look it up. Because I've got two, probably. You always have two answers to the

Speaker A:

things you only give us one answer for. Well, you can have two if you want. You can you can

Speaker C:

bend those rules as well. Oh, I tell you what. All right. I think one of his probably very earliest films, which is the lair of the white worm. Oh, I'm not familiar with that. Well, it's a I mean, it's by Ken Russell. So it's obviously weird. I mean, it's it's a super weird film. It's about a it's hard to say what it's about. But it's about a sort of small village and kind of strange, strange kind of mythical monster that may possibly lives nearby. And there's a lot of dream, dream sequences and, and, and it has Amanda Donohoe being incredibly sexy in it. There's a very famous scene where she seduces a Boy Scout, but all is not what it seems. I know this film. I've seen that. Yeah, it's I'm just mentioning that because it's a bit non mainstream. I have to say it probably isn't my favourite. But I just think I wanted to come

Speaker A:

up with an answer that wasn't all of the other ones. Yeah, yeah. Okay. Nice. Peter. I liked him

Speaker B:

in Sense and Sensibility, the:

Speaker A:

role for the Hugh Grant trope. Yeah, yeah. I think my favourite, I guess whether it's performances or films, but it just performances, I do think he is marvellous in Four Weddings and a Funeral. And he's great as well, in the second Paddington Bear film, was quite a sort of self knowing performance there as an aging actor. But actually, my favourite film, I mean, I think I'm doing a bit of a Nick here. But my favourite film with him is is Sirens, where he plays a vicar, sort of turn of the century, previous century, there or thereabouts in Australia. Are you familiar with this film? Yeah, it's about that real, real guy. I don't think so. It's about an artist who was real. Yeah, actually, you know, you're right. I think yeah, I think the artist is real, because Sam Neill plays the artist. But best of all, you've got Elle Macpherson running around with not much on. And so yeah, so that's sort of definitely up there with my films that

Speaker B:

I like with Hugh Grant. One more. Go for it. Cloud Atlas. Not nearly as good as the book, I'm told. I've never read the book. But I really liked that movie. And he the roles he plays in that. So they all the characters, all the actors play multiple roles, because the idea is that these people sort of reoccur during history. But the roles he plays in that are very serious ones. And he's demonstrating his, his diverse range, range as an actor being able to do very serious, quite dark characters. Okay, in that movie. I think we're all fully fledged members of the

Speaker A:

Hugh Grant fam club. I look forward to his latest pronouncements on on politics and COVID-19 in the UK. Okay. I think I think he should run for Prime Minister. Yeah, do you know he would he could get

Speaker C:

it? Yeah. He's now he's played he actually was the Prime Minister wasn't he in Love Actually or something? Yeah, exactly. Or is it about a book? I get those two films. Okay, Love Actually. Yeah.

Speaker A:

Okay, look, let's wrap up there. Thank you, as always, for listening to the Cognitive Engineering podcast. I'm Fraser McGruer. We've been here with Nick Hare and Peter Coghill of Aleph Insights. And until next time, goodbye.

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