Mob mentality

Speaker A: 00:00:00

Hello and welcome to the Cognitive Engineering Podcast produced by me, Fraser McGruer for Aleph Insights. In this series of podcasts, we take a look at interesting topics and discuss what we think they tell us about analysis and decision making. I'm here with Sara Nonu, Peter Coghill and Nick Hare of Aleph Insights, and this week we're discussing mob mentality. And due to the lockdown, unusually, we're recording this remotely. Nick, you strike me as the sort of person who could be found in the midst of a mob rioting about. Yeah. Mob mentality. What's it all about? Why do we want to talk about it? Well, you've seen the loo rolls. We've done the loo rolls. I mean, that was the loo roll phase of the COVID-19 pandemic was a few weeks ago, wasn't it? But then following on from that, we've been in the middle of the, we're now in the flour and yeast phase. And now I thought it would be good. You know, we did that podcast about stocking up and prepping. Like we did that, you know, very prescient. It was like last year sometime. Well, I took it to heart and we did. We were we actually been I mean, for Brexit disruption had stocked up quite a lot. And and then and then so there wasn't that much topping up that that needed to happen when the when the pandemic started. But I thought, well, what a great idea. Right. If we if we're not going out much perfect time to, you know, bake some bread, get get the old baking up and running might even start one of these sourdough starters, which I've, you know, read about, but never thought about doing so. So I did all that, congratulating myself on my initiative, only to discover that everyone else in the world has been doing the same. Everyone has started baking bread and buying yeast. Now, luckily, the shop at the bottom of the road sells massive bags of flour and no one seems to know about it. So I've been looking online because I couldn't find any yeast, you know, a couple of weeks ago, and not in any shop. And it wasn't even available online. So, you know, there's been a massive run on on yeast as well. But, you know, so this is disappointing to discover that you're just, you know, like exactly the same as everyone else. When you think that you're being kind of independent minded, and you've got a good idea that you've come up with, to discover that everyone else has come up with the same idea. Similar things happen, don't they, with like baby's names. We've done a podcast about baby's names in the past, where everyone thinks that their baby name is like, very unique, that they've come up with themselves and, you know, is perfect for their baby. But of course, you know, actually turns out that everyone's called their kids unique or Trevor, you know, all at the same time. And so, you know, the question is why? What's going on? That's the question. I guess, I mean, you can say why, what's going on, but also we'd want to, how do we get ahead of the game might be a good one. How do I not be part of a mob? How do we start trading in flour futures at the right time? I'm even worse than you, Nick, because you're sort of already ahead of this thinking, yeah, I know what I'm gonna do, I'm gonna start baking bread. I'm sort of the next phase or two along, where I start reading pieces in the Guardian or on BBC about flour selling out and yeast and so on. And I think, oh, I think I should start baking bread. And then I go out and go, oh, no, there's no flour, or there's no yeast. So I'm sort of way sort of behind you. Well, actually, that's when we talk about the anatomy of mob mentality, I think we'll get onto that. We'll get onto that. Okay, so who wants to pick this up? Where do we go from here? Mob mentality, have we, I mean, do we need to define it? We've talked about finding yourself in predicament, you think you're way out in front, but actually, you think you're an innovator, but

Speaker B: 00:03:52

you're just part of the herd. Peter? I always feel hugely unqualified to talk about the psychology of things. But it is a lot of very interesting psychology going on. And there's lots of very interesting pieces coming out explaining the psychology to do with how people behave when they're under a bit of stress and how it changes their behavior. I think it worth, we've mentioned it before, but it's worth mentioning, again, is an excellent blog series on weight, but why. And he beautifully describes an analogy of these two, two little creatures that live inside your mind that are constantly competing for sort of your to control your actions. One is a sort of primitive mind that is really concerned with reproduction and eating. And then the higher mind, which is something that humans have evolved, which allows us to reason and to empathize. So I recommend listeners to have a read of that, because that's a really nice little model that explains how your behaviors are driven when it comes to different stimuli, things that threaten you, stimulate your primitive mind, make you want to survive. But things that, and that sort of swamps the higher mind and stops it from working. But look, the more we talk about this, and I know we're trying to

Speaker A: 00:05:14

avoid the term, but I'm going to use the term herd mentality, because we talk about that in when we talk about financial markets, because it's about doing the right, you know, the right thing at the right time. So what we should do, say three months from now, when hopefully all this sort of COVID 19, the global pandemic is over, or winding down quite significantly, we should all go out or no, no, I should go out and buy some yeast and buy some and buy some flour, an unlimited shelf life as I did. That's right. I'll put a note in my calendar reminded me once every three months, something like that. And so I've always got some yeast on me. So the key is to stockpile a bit like Nick was doing with with flour, when no, when when no one would dream of stockpiling, right? It's a bit like with financial markets, obviously, you've got to talk about shares, you've got to buy those at the right time, right? So what's my point? That's, I think you've got a good point,

Speaker B: 00:06:09

Fraser. And referring back to the psychological resilience podcast we did, I think the there is, there is utility in just thinking about being prepared. So I've been reading a few articles that said, well, you know, maybe we should, as a nation be a bit more cognizant that these sorts of things do occur now. And again, we had Brexit, people panic panic bought for that we had had COVID-19 panic bought for that. And previous sort of crises in the last over the last 10 years, people were always panic buying. Why, for God's sake, don't they just have a few tins of the essentials in their cupboards? They'll panic buying in advance. Yeah, they'll make a lot of huge amounts, but just some, just like a couple of weeks worth of tinned tomatoes and beans and things like that would make them feel more prepared, and less likely to then panic. Yeah,

Speaker C: 00:06:58

Sarah? I was just gonna say I already have that already. Like, is that just not a stock standard thing people do is make sure that they have enough food so you don't have to go to the supermarket

Speaker B: 00:07:06

so often? Yeah, a tin of peaches. Oh yeah, I've got some of them. I think it's a standard thing that sort of sensible people do. People have, you know, but I think a lot of people just aren't

Speaker C: 00:07:19

sensible. I guess the other thing is like not to go crazy, right? Because often, like, I go to a supermarket and I see there's stuff on sale, like two for this price, four for this price. And I think, man, that's a really good idea. I should buy that. And then I have a stockpile of stuff that I actually don't ever use. And I still haven't even used during COVID-19. The day will come,

Speaker A: 00:07:40

Sarah. The day will come when you'll reach for those, the chickpeas in harissa sauce. I have

Speaker C: 00:07:47

so many chickpeas. I kid you not. I don't know what I'm going to do with them all.

Speaker A: 00:07:52

ncidents. Do you remember the: 2016

Speaker C: 00:10:29

But then I think that that leads to maybe the first people are right and rational. But with the next lot of people who actually don't know what's going on, that can be actually emotionally driven. So they're seeing someone do something, they sense what's going on, they sense that fear, and they go with it. And there are other things that I think contribute to it. If you're not looking at just like stampeds, but looking at riots. People in a riot often have like a loss of individuality, they lose their principles, because there's this increased anonymity of being in a group. And I think that's something that happens in a mob mentality. And you can see it at like sports events, there's that us versus them. And that can even like be in when I was doing some research, there was stuff in about prisons and prison riots. And it's that us versus them mentality can come in really strong, supporting that mob mentality. Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of emotional element to it.

Speaker A: 00:11:28

Before you come in, Nick, just thinking about that, I mean, immediately that sort of what you're talking about there, Sarah, we immediately sort of perceive the negative side of that, right? So for example, a huge group of football fans, just quite a scary thing, right? And that loss of individual individuality, and most people on their own pretty nice people, whereas great big mob is not. But I guess, you know, there are upsides to that as well. That's how you mobilize an army. That's how you fight another country. That's how you do all that kind of stuff. Anyway, I guess sort of, you know, we're not always talking, we think about it negatively, but I interrupted you there, Sarah, but I know Peter wants to say something as well, Peter.

Speaker B: 00:12:09

Yeah, I think we developed, we evolved these heuristics, which drive our behavior for a reason, and they've worked, they've got us this far. The problem is when the heuristic is no longer valuable, or appropriate response for the circumstance. So when, if you hear a bang, and people start running, it could be a good idea to start running. And the problem is that when that kind of response is hijacked by something else, and the panic buying of toilet roll and flour is an example where a primitive part of your brain takes over your decision making, and you just go along with what everybody else is doing, without considering rationally and using your higher functions and realizing actually, there's space and capacity in the supply chain. And perhaps actually, you know, we should just buy what we need, so that everyone can get something.

Speaker A: 00:13:05

Yeah, I think there's two different types of motivations for following the crowds. And I think, you know, Sarah's talking about joining a crowd as an end in itself, because you want to be part of a mob. And, you know, that actually, that obviously comes from very sort of, you know, early evolutionary environment type things for humans, where, you know, actually, it's no matter how nasty the people are with are, it's still better to be with a bunch of other people, you know, when you're facing lions and hordes of chimpanzees, than it is to be on your own. So, you know, that sort of desire and the kind of things that people do as a mob, you know, as an end in itself, because we want to be in a mob, because it's good to be in a mob, versus joining a mob, because you're using the mob's behavior as evidence that something is a good idea. So, you know, and I think that's, that's quite a distinct sort of motivation. So you're looking, you know, it's like, okay, everyone's buying toilet rolls. I don't want to join the toilet roll gang. I'm not buying toilet rolls so that I can be in the toilet roll club and get all the benefits that that brings. I'm buying toilet rolls, because everyone else is doing it. And so I

Speaker B: 00:14:17

sort of think, well, I better do that. They're kind of driven by the same requirement for survival, though. One is, one is to deal with the actual, I need toilet roll to survive. But the other is, I need to be part of a group to survive. It's all part, they're all, it's all rooted in the same thing. They are, they are kind of conceptually distinct, but they're the same driver. Sarah?

Speaker C: 00:14:38

I was just gonna say, that's kind of the way I looked at this is that there is a, there's that group, the group mentality, but then there's also that individual aspect of someone who, you know, wants to be a part of something, who doesn't want to be seen missing out, wants to do, you know, what's cool and trendy and fashionable, and maybe that's buying toilet roll when, in a pandemic, and that's why you want to be a part of it. It's not, there's like, the way I view it, the way I viewed it was two elements.

Speaker A: 00:15:06

ts, which I think were in the: 1970

Speaker B: 00:20:30

Yeah, I agree. It's an interesting phenomenon. I just wondered to what degree it's driven by fairly, fairly similar drivers as the survival instinct. You put you have a strong association with bread, if you grew up in a sort of Western European society, or many parts of the world, bread is like a staple. So it does sort of symbolize on one level food. And maybe you think, oh, well, maybe you're maybe this sort of pat this sort of sense of background panic or anxiety, triggers a thought in you, well, actually, maybe I should get around to learning how to make my own bread, in case the bread runs out. So it's, for me, it feels very similar to the desire to follow the herd and run out and buy toilet paper. It's just that it's come to your conscious by a slightly different route.

Speaker A: 00:21:21

I still want to ask that question about, you know, how to improve decision making. But before I do, is there anything you want to say, Sarah?

Speaker C: 00:21:29

I guess, on this point, the only other thing that I would be of interest to know is how much subliminal messaging that comes through, because obviously, we have social media, and we have advertising that's coming on strong right now. And it just in the example of bread, how much of how much are we seeing is actually in the back of our mind being like, oh, maybe we should make bread? Is it that survival instinct? Is it the aspects that Nick was talking about? Or is it a combination of a lot of things? Because for me, I know that all my feeds are filled with people baking bread, but I've yet to have the desire to make bread. I've only made chocolate chip cookies. And I think there's these other things coming through. And I'm making oat and raisin tomorrow. So, you know, I'm still baking, just not bread. But I think, yeah, maybe there. I think it's a lot of elements that contribute to it.

Speaker A: 00:22:25

But also, your question, Fraser, about decision making. Yeah, I think that's what certainly what it highlights for me, is how little insight we have into what is really driving our decisions. Because I'm sure Sarah's right. I mean, that you those those sorts of, you know, things that you see, every time you see, see someone you like on social media doing something, whether you like it or not, that is going to cement some kind of association between the activity and a positive feeling in some way. There's no doubt about it. And yet we're not aware if someone asked me why I was baking bread, I would have rationalized it and said, Well, I mean, it's, you know, you've got a bit more time on my hands. And we can't go out very often. So we can't be getting fresh bread every day. So it makes sense to bake bread, right? Why not? Like, it's a, it would be my rationalization. But but it, you know, the phenomenon of everyone deciding to create their own sourdough starter cannot be solely explained by, you know, individual decisions along those lines, I think. But I think maybe it's because you live in North London. If you, if you lived in Toxteth, you'd be fine. But, or maybe that's a slight on the residents. I mean, but there's an XKCD cartoon about everyone making sourdough starters, suggesting that, that actually, yeast is symbiotic with COVID-19. I mean, that only works if you realize that everyone in the world has all has all decided independently to get their sourdough starters going.

Speaker B: 00:24:00

Yeah, I question how independent it is, even if you're just smelling the smell of bread on the air, that's going to make you think about bread and think about

Speaker A: 00:24:09

you think there's a there's just so much baking going on that

Speaker B: 00:24:14

you can't move for the smell of freshly baked bread, because that's it. I just don't think it's that I question how strong this sort of this driver you're postulating about a link of symbology to do with survival and and higher level concepts like bread baking is actually a driver. And if it's just you've read an article about people baking bread, which made you think

Speaker A: 00:24:39

about maybe is just a good idea, maybe maybe my rationalization is right. And that actually, it does make sense to make bread if you can't go to the shops every day. It's hard. I lack insight. I think I have insight into why I do things. But it does make you realize that you don't really. And that is the that is an interesting. That is the interesting really conclusion of this

Speaker B: 00:25:00

conversation is, it would be great to be able to sort of download the logs of your brain and scrutinize why you made certain decisions. Well, you can with a computer, but you just can't. So it's if you can't see inside yourself. Sarah? Oh, I was just gonna say, I just realized that

Speaker C: 00:25:17

I might not have been baking bread. But on the weekends, I have been biking off to a bakery to buy sourdough, which is not something I did before. And I don't know why. It's not

Speaker A: 00:25:29

Save your money and make your own sourdough. Oh, that seems like a lot. Have you got a set of scales? No, no, I do not. Well, I don't know. It's harder then. But yeah, yeah, I've been making it. It's fun, actually. Yeah. I mean, we've been taking out into the garden to absorb the local yeasts and things. Look, throw Felicity Kendall into the bargain with this and I'm in. But without that, I'm not interested in this good life. Um, I think we've covered it. We're gonna stop there. Thank you for listening. We've been here with Peter Coghill, Nick Hare and Sara Nonu of Aleph Insights. And until next time, goodbye.